(Photo by Lucas Sankey on Unsplash)
Over the last several decades, it’s become customary to ask the electorate in the run-up to presidential elections if they were better off four years ago.
I can safely say that our family is much better off now than four years ago.
During Trump’s last year in office, we spent a lot of time in either complete COVID isolation or significant restrictions. There were shortages of many consumer goods. While we were fortunate that B’s job could be done remotely, our finances had been negatively impacted by the Trump/Republican tax cuts, which saved wealthy individuals and corporations millions of dollars but raised federal income taxes for those of us who live in states with higher property and state income taxes by restricting our ability to itemize. (Republican Claudia Tenney was our representative at the time and put out an illustration of how much a family with three children under 14 would save in federal income tax, ignoring that the vast majority of her constituents didn’t fit that model and certainly a household like ours, older couple with no dependents, had a significant tax increase, not a cut.) Our retirement savings took a hit as both stocks and bonds were suffering from the disruption of the world economy due to the pandemic.
While we were fortunate to have a stable home and employment, 2020 was generally a scary time. Many in our community had job losses and health problems, including serious COVID cases. Too many people suffered lasting health consequences or death from the pandemic. While our state government did their best to deal with those early pandemic months, President Trump was a hindrance rather than a help in safeguarding our well-being.
In this final year of President Biden’s first term, things are much better for our family. With federal support for vaccines and treatments and with our own precautions, we have only had one relatively mild COVID case in our household. While inflation has raised some of our household costs, wages have gone up, too. We have appreciated higher interest rates on our savings and the record levels of the stock market have helped our retirement savings to recover and grow. The current unemployment rate in Broome County NY, where I live, is 4.5%, slightly higher than the national average of 3.9%. By contrast, in April 2020, our county set its record high unemployment rate at 15.2%.
While I know there are individuals who were better off four years ago, the majority of people are healthier and in a more stable situation than they were in 2020.
Still, many people feel differently. Perhaps, the trauma of the early part of the pandemic caused them to forget the fear, illness, job losses, shortages, and isolation we experienced. Perhaps, their personal income wasn’t able to compensate for inflation. (For the record, the supply chain problems that caused some of the inflation surge have resolved but the extra profit-taking by companies has not, especially with products that have only a handful of suppliers. The blame for price gouging should fall on greedy corporations, not on the administration.) Perhaps, some people are victims of fear-mongering or misinformation about the economy and public policy.
Admittedly, as I decide which candidates to support, I prefer to look at the broader picture of my local community and the country rather than the small picture of my household. In my area, there are lots of infrastructure improvements underway, especially with our roads. The local hospital just opened a new building. There is lots of government and private support for new and expanding business because we are a nationally recognized center for battery technology. Old factory buildings that were sitting vacant for decades are being renovated for housing and business use. Our regional airport is undergoing enhancements.
Many other counties around the country have similar stories of positive change.
I hope that voters will look honestly at their own past and present when evaluating the economic and health aspects of deciding among candidates. Don’t let other people or the media tell you what you should think. It’s also helpful to look at how government helped or hindered the economy or public health. The United States economy, including employment and inflation, has recovered much more quickly from the shock of the pandemic than other countries with advanced economies. The actions of the Biden administration are a factor in this economic strength.
An example of how public sentiment diverges from legislation and statistics is this poll from late April which finds that, when asked whether Biden or Trump did “more to promote infrastructure and job creation,” the results were 40% Biden, 37% Trump, 12% both equally, 12% don’t know. The fact is that no major infrastructure bills passed during the Trump administration while the Biden administration was heavily involved in crafting the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. This law along with the American Rescue Plan, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act have contributed to 15 million jobs added to the US economy under President Biden while the Trump presidency saw a loss of 2.9 million jobs. That the poll opinions deviate so dramatically from the legislative record and statistics suggests that other factors are at play, such as dis/misinformation, taking personal experience as universal, fear, and partisanship. Robert Reich had an interesting piece on his Substack yesterday exploring some of the facts, possible reasons they aren’t breaking through with the public, and possible ways to address the disparity.
When I look at this question of how my family, community, state, and country are doing during the Biden presidency and contrast it with the Trump presidency, it’s clear that Biden has the better record and plans for the future. I will vote for Biden and for Congressional candidates who will support Biden’s agenda.
I hope that all voters will evaluate the facts on the economy as they make decisions about voting.
Joanne Corey 