It’s been four years since the first cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in the US but it’s still a major health issue. While vaccines, treatments, and preventative measures have made the current situation less severe than the initial onslaught of SARS-CoV-2, people are still getting sick, with some needing to be hospitalized and some, unfortunately, succumbing to the disease, including the person I referenced in this post. In the week of Dec. 31, 2023-January 6, 2024, COVID caused 4% of all deaths in the United States.
The virus continues to mutate. The current strain that is dominant in the United States and globally is JN.1, which is related to the BA.2.86 variant of Omicron. The good news is that the most recent vaccine, which is based on the related XBB lineage, is a good match for JN.1, so the vaccine significantly reduces the risk of severe symptoms, hospitalization, and death while offering some protection against infection. The bad news is that, in the United States, only about 8% of children and 19% of adults are estimated to have received the newest vaccine, contributing to a surge of cases, amplified by holiday travel and gatherings.
More good vaccine news. This large study from Sweden concludes that vaccination reduces the risk of developing long COVID and that additional vaccine doses reduce risk even more. As someone who has particular concerns about long COVID, I appreciate that these studies are continuing to increase our understanding.
Another recent study shows that the Omicron variants don’t cause peak viral loads until day 3-4, much later than the earlier strains of the virus. The practical implication of this is that at-home COVID tests may not pick up a positive reading until several days into the illness, during which time the person could be infecting others. It also has implications for prescribing anti-virals, which need to begin within the first five days of symptoms to be effective. For me, this is a reminder to mask around other people whenever I have symptoms, as an early negative test might not be accurate.
A study published just a few days ago seems to put some science behind what we have all experienced, that SARS-CoV-2 doesn’t have a “season” in the way that some other viruses, like influenza, do. Changes in temperature and humidity don’t appear to have significant influence in transmission. This seems to go along with what we have experienced in the United States, with major waves happening in different seasons of the year. We’ve had waves in the heat of summer as well as the cold of winter. This suggests that our current winter wave is due more to low vaccination rates and holiday travel and gatherings than to the fact that it is winter. It also highlights the importance of increasing ventilation and using masks in crowded indoor spaces, as both summer heat and winter cold tend to drive people to gather indoors.
Four years in, I’ve written a lot of COVID-19 posts. From my days as part of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine trials through the present, I’ve always tried to give the most updated information and public health guidance available. It’s frustrating that there is less information from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention than when the state of emergency was still in effect but some useful recent data can be found here. A lot of the information in this post came to my attention through this post from Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, writing as “Your Local Epidemiologist” and this post from Those Nerdy Girls.
Through all these challenges, especially when spouse B had the first case of COVID in our house in November, I’ve managed to avoid infection, unless I had a totally asymptomatic case at some point. I use my research to make decisions about vaccination, masking, crowd avoidance, etc. that are right for me and my family. I don’t think that advocating for health measures ought to be seen as controversial or political. There are, though, forces in the US that have warped disease prevention into a political test. It’s very sad that Republicans are more likely to die from COVID than non-Republicans. Please, don’t put your health and the health of your family and neighbors at risk over politics. COVID-19 is still out there. Take care of your health and your loved ones.
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Joanne Corey 